Shall We Shad Now, or Shad Later?

1. shad before 'dads.  "in the winter, crawfish may not hibernate like bears or some other animals, but they become very lethargic and largely inactive.  that means the bass have fewer opportunities to feed on them.  at some point, when they stop regularly finding craws, the bass will stop looking for them as much." (link) 

2. shad kill occurs when water temperatures hit around 45 degrees. "there are several things which may actually affect the die-off.  

• cumulative lake temperatures (inlet and mid-lake temperatures may vary)
• photo period (effect of cold temperatures may be affected by when they arrive)
• metabolic demands (more need to feed in mild winters)
• availability of food (severe winters may limit)

generally, a harder, more prolonged winter will mean longer, lower cumulative temperatures and less food   supply for shad resulting in more massive die-offs." (link)

3. too much shad might not be a good thing. "remember these fish for the most part have stuffed themselves slap full much like ole Uncle Ned on Thanksgiving.  now they have made their way to some limb, knob or other fishy recliner and are in a shad induced coma.  even though that fish is literally stuffed to the gills he’s still Uncle Ned at heart.  you go and slip a piece of chocolate cake by his nose, he’s going to eat it.  (link)